Two connected parts. A weekly risk model for every player in Europe's top five leagues: calibrated logistic regression on 1.29M player-weeks of public data, tested once on a season it had never seen. And a live match-day tool for bench staff that compares each player with his own normal, runs offline at the ground, and was built and tested end to end on synthetic matches.
Weekly model: top 10% risk group injured 6× as often as the bottom 10%.